In this Insurance Institute of London (IIL) reinsurance lecture Professor Danny Ralph will talk about risk within a different range of possible future scenarios and a tool to cope with uncertainty, especially when risks are not well understood, or cannot be quantified or identified.

In his lecture, Danny will aim to cover understanding the broad applications of scenarios to explore risk, to explore common characteristics and differences in scenario typologies and how to apply common frameworks to develop relevant and effective scenarios.

The aim is to provide a systematic method for thinking creatively about a variety of possible futures, rather than attempting to accurately predict individual outcomes. Scenarios are increasingly used by practitioners, decision makers, and other stakeholders in insurance to better understand the characteristics and consequences of unknown, uncertain, or unexpected future events, and support planning and decision-making strategies to address them. This session will mark the launch of two scenario best practice guides – for the insurance industry and the disaster risk reduction community – exploring development frameworks and key considerations.